Fantasy Football Rankings 2024: NFL surprise candidates, breakouts and flops according to model that summed up Deebo Samuel's difficult year

NFL training camps are open and Fantasy Football 2024 is just around the corner. Last season, there were 27 players who surpassed 1,000 yards in pass receiving, and drafting receivers with the first two 2024 fantasy football picks seems like a viable strategy. Only four running backs have come off the board in the first round of the 12-team PPR drafts so far this season, while eight wide receivers have come off the board. Where should you trend in the first round, and how should you approach players like Joe Mixon, Derrick Henry, Austin Ekeler and Saquon Barkley, who all switched teams this offseason and moved up the RB rankings for Fantasy Football 2024?

With the reliable 2024 Fantasy Football rankings, you can gain valuable insight into your upcoming drafts and identify potential dark horses, breakout players and flop players. Before you set your 2024 Fantasy Football Draft strategy, be sure to check out the 2024 Fantasy Football rankings and cheat sheets from SportsLine's proven computer model.

Last year, the model correctly predicted that Buccaneers running back Rachaad White was dramatically undervalued. White was taken in the seventh round on average in 12-team PPR leagues, but proved to be Tampa Bay's ball carrier and brought significantly more value than expected, coming in at No. 4 at his position. White rushed for 990 yards and six touchdowns, while as a receiver he made 64 catches for 549 yards and three more scores. Everyone who followed the model's advice scored a starting running back every week in the middle rounds.

The same model has proven effective in providing fantasy football picks. It identified AJ Brown as a surprise pick in 2020 and picked Jonathan Taylor's monstrous season in 2021. In addition, it names previous fantasy football surprise picks like Derrick Henry in 2019, Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara in 2018, and Davante Adams in 2017. Anyone who bet on players like these could get a leg up on their championship wins.

The model is developed by the same people who create the projections for all three major fantasy sites, and it beat the human experts last season when there was a huge difference in the rankings. The Fantasy Football 2024 PPR rankings and standard Fantasy Football 2024 projections are updated multiple times a day, so you'll always get the best fantasy football picks.

Now SportsLine has simulated the entire NFL season 10,000 times and released its latest fantasy football rankings for 2024, along with plenty of surprise candidates, breakouts and flops. Head to SportsLine now to see them.

The best insider tips for Fantasy Football 2024

One of the dark horses for 2024 fantasy football that the model predicts: Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts. The former Florida tight end is one of the most physically gifted players to ever enter the NFL, but after rushing for over 1,000 yards as a rookie in 2021, Pitts has struggled with injuries and inconsistency. The Falcons signed a proven quarterback in Kirk Cousins ​​this offseason, and the model projects a massive increase in Pitts' fantasy production.

New Falcons offensive coordinator Zac Robinson runs a system that depends on the performance of the tight end position. A nightmare for opposing defenses, Pitts now plays in a system that will prioritize his role in Atlanta's offense. Pitts currently has an ADP of 64 in CBS Sports fantasy drafts and is an average sixth-round pick. Find more 2024 fantasy football sleepers here.

The best fantasy football outliers of 2024

One of the 2024 fantasy football breakouts the model predicts: Bengals running back Chase Brown. A fifth-round pick out of Illinois in the 2023 NFL Draft, Brown was rarely used behind Joe Mixon in his rookie season. He carried the ball 44 times for 179 yards and caught 14 passes for 156 yards and a touchdown.

With Mixon gone, however, he has the opportunity to compete for a bigger role on offense. Cincinnati signed Zack Moss to provide competition this offseason, and he's currently No. 1 on the Bengals' depth chart, but Brown should get plenty of play on the timeshare roster. That's a big reason why the model rates him as the RB34, even though he was the 38th running back on average. For more 2024 fantasy football breakthroughs, click here.

The biggest failures in Fantasy Football 2024

As for players to avoid, the model lists Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers as one of its 2024 fantasy football misses. Rodgers' first season in New York didn't go as planned. The veteran signal-caller suffered a torn left Achilles tendon four snaps into his first game with the Jets. While he's certainly one of the most recognizable quarterbacks in the league, Rodgers hasn't been the most productive fantasy football quarterback when healthy.

In fact, he threw 26 or fewer touchdown passes in four of his final six seasons with the Packers. Additionally, Rodgers has thrown just one pass in an NFL game over the past 18 months, a big reason why the model warns fantasy owners to stay away from the future Hall of Famer. The model ranks Rodgers outside the top 20 quarterbacks in its 2024 fantasy football QB rankings, making him one of the top 20 2024 fantasy football flops to avoid on draft day. Find more 2024 fantasy football flops here

How to find proven fantasy football rankings for 2024

SportsLine is also extremely excited about a surprise quarterback you wouldn't even think would be selected in the middle rounds of the 2024 fantasy football draft. This quarterback is listed as a surprise top-10 option ahead of stars like Trevor Lawrence and Aaron Rodgers. You can see who it is and the 2023 fantasy football rankings for each player only at SportsLine.

So which surprises, outliers and flops should you target and ignore in 2024 fantasy football, and which quarterback will surprise the NFL with a top-10 performance? Visit SportsLine now to get 2024 fantasy football cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that Deebo Samuel exposed as a flop last year, and find out.