That's why progressive Aaron Peskin is lagging behind in the race for mayor in San Francisco

Supervisor Aaron Peskin entered the race for San Francisco mayor in April, hoping to serve as a standard-bearer for progressive voters seeking a clear contrast to moderate incumbent London Breed.

Four months later, Peskin still doesn't have nearly enough support to unseat Breed, despite his campaign insisting he's on a viable path to victory. A new poll commissioned by the Chronicle found he was the first choice of just 12% of likely voters, putting him in fourth place behind Breed, former interim mayor Mark Farrell and nonprofit founder Daniel Lurie.

While 18 percent of likely voters are still undecided, the poll found that Peskin may have a hard time building his support enough to win the election. Only 8 percent of respondents would make Peskin their second choice and 23 percent said they would rank him last among the five major candidates.

One of the biggest difficulties for Peskin in this race is that he has been widely known in San Francisco – for better or for worse – since he was first elected to the Board of Supervisors more than two decades ago.

His well-documented opposition to unfettered market-rate housing has made him something of a villain for those who favor a dramatic expansion of housing for all income levels. Peskin defends his housing record by pointing to the tens of thousands of units he approved during his tenure, though he often blocked certain projects in the name of historic preservation. And while he sees his mastery of local government procedures as a strength, he has long been a symbol of functionalism at City Hall for his most vehement critics.

Peskin made headlines for personal reasons in 2021 when he sought treatment for alcohol abuse after other officials complained that he appeared visibly drunk at public and private meetings and harassed colleagues and low-level city employees. He is now running in part on the basis of his recovery, arguing in a campaign video that “San Francisco needs recovery, too.”

The large number of voters who said in the Chronicle poll they would put Peskin last suggests his reputation could be a hindrance to him. But he was the last of the five major candidates to enter the race, so he has had the least time to raise money and get his message out. His campaign team has organized volunteers to help spread the word about his candidacy, and in the coming months he is expected to benefit from a political action committee that some of his progressive allies are organizing.

Jonathan Brown, president of Sextant Strategies & Research, which conducted the Chronicle poll, described Peskin as “a candidate who really suffers in a ranked-choice election because he's so polarizing.” In San Francisco's ranked-choice system, voters can choose up to 10 candidates in order of preference. If no one receives more than 50% in the first round, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated and his ballot is distributed to the next highest-ranking candidates from his voters, and this process continues until someone gets a majority.

According to the poll, Peskin received more support than any other candidate among voters who identified as progressive, with one-third of voters choosing him as their first choice. However, many voters who identified as liberal or moderate chose Peskin “at the top of their last choice,” Brown said.

“In a traditional election scenario, Peskin would have a good chance of making the runoff, but in a ranked-choice election, he is in a difficult position unless he finds a message that broadens his support along the ideological spectrum – or at least reduces opposition to his candidacy,” Brown said.

Renters, who make up the majority of San Francisco households, are a central part of the winning coalition Peskin is trying to build. He has promised to expand rent control in San Francisco if California voters pass a referendum in November repealing a state law that limits cities' ability to cap rent increases. He has the support of rent groups like the San Francisco Tenants Union.

He has also sought the support of unions, winning the backing of SEIU Local 1021, the city's largest public sector union, as well as other unions representing teachers, hospitality workers and others. Peskin also plans to leverage his extensive familiarity with the city's Asian American community, gained through his tenure as Chinatown representative. And he hopes key endorsements from progressive politicians and neighborhood leaders who share his views on historic preservation will help him win.

So far, the strategy seems to be working, Peskin told the Chronicle on Thursday. He said when he speaks to predominantly Chinese-American groups, excited attendees often ask him to take selfies, cars honk at him and people lean out their windows to give him a thumbs up as they pass him on the street.

“Everywhere I go, people are excited about this candidacy,” Peskin said. “They want someone who is not just fighting for the interests of big real estate and corporate groups. They want an ordinary San Francisco resident who has a proven track record of fighting for the interests of ordinary people.”

San Francisco hasn't elected a mayor who sided with progressives since Art Agnos, who left office in 1992 and endorsed Peskin's campaign this year. In recent years, a progressive has typically finished second in contested mayoral elections, most recently in 2018, when former state Sen. Mark Leno narrowly lost to Breed in the final round of ranked-choice voting.

Although Peskin's poll numbers suggest he's still a long way from even getting into the top two, his campaign is confident he can do it. Between the start of his campaign in April and the end of June, Peskin raised about $769,000 from donors and the city's public financing program. He had $593,000 on hand, including public grants that had been approved but not yet received. And his campaign continues to raise money.

“He's worked really, really hard to build a citywide base of donors so that he'll have the resources to campaign in the fall when most voters start paying attention,” said Jim Stearns, Peskin's political adviser. “We'll spend Aaron's money when it counts most… We know we'll be the underdogs in terms of spending, but we'll have enough to get our message out.”

Peskin must fight for voters' attention as wealthy donors pump huge sums into political action committees that benefit his opponents. The best-funded candidate is Lurie, a Levi Strauss heir who is partially self-financing his campaign. A political action committee supporting Lurie had about $2.6 million in the bank at the end of June, the most recent reporting period. A pro-Breed PAC, meanwhile, had about $455,000.

A group of Peskin supporters, including union leaders, is preparing to form their own PAC to support his candidacy. Eric Jaye, a political consultant involved in the effort, said those involved initially want to raise $1 million to promote a positive image of Peskin.

“When it comes to housing, he's under attack from developers, and I think that's a testament to how successful he's been at engaging with developers' interests and demanding that they build truly affordable housing,” Jaye said. “It's also important to tell Peskin's story as an uncompromising and consistent champion of the rights of working people and their families.”

Despite Peskin's poor showing in the Chronicle poll, even some of his leading moderate critics do not expect him to drop out as a candidate for mayor.

“We may disagree with Aaron Peskin, but there's no denying that he's a very good campaigner, a very good politician and very smart,” said Steven Buss, co-founder of the moderate advocacy group Grow SF. “Once Peskin runs his ads, there's a good chance he's going to get a lot of support.”

Several dozen volunteers supporting Peskin's candidacy for mayor gathered in Dolores Park on Sunday before heading out to knock door to door in the Mission District, a stronghold of progressivism in the city, and distribute Peskin's campaign materials.

Before they left, Peskin gave a short speech outlining his appeal to voters and his plans for the future. He said San Francisco residents “don't want their neighborhood destroyed by speculators” and reiterated his support for expanding rent control. He talked about how to prepare the city for sea level rise caused by climate change and condemned the billionaires who support other mayoral candidates.

“We don't have that, but we all have each other,” Peskin said. “The only way we can win this is if we prevail, and that's what we have here… We will win and we will turn San Francisco back into the tolerant, inclusive and loving city we moved to many years ago.”

Reach JD Morris: [email protected]; Twitter: @thejdmorris